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SPECIAL REPORT MISSIONS TO SUDAN 17 January 2001
1. OVERVIEW An
FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited southern Sudan
from 8 to 30 October 2001 and northern Sudan from 16 November to 6
December 2001 to assess current season cereal production, forecast
wheat production from areas prepared for planting, and estimate cereal
import requirements in the marketing year 2001/02 (November/October).
The Mission was able to visit 24 of the 26 states in the country,
both in Government and rebel held areas. This mission was particularly
in response to last year’s drought-induced severe food shortages in
Sudan which necessitated large humanitarian interventions. The
Mission received full co-operation from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture
and the Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC), which assigned senior staff
to accompany the Mission. Pre-harvest data on area and yield were
provided to the Mission by State Ministries of Agriculture and the
various irrigation schemes for all cereal crops in all states in northern
Sudan. The Mission cross-checked the data during field visits and
farmer and trader interviews. Discussions were also held with key
informants from local government administrations, UN agencies and
NGOs. In
southern Sudan, rebel-held areas were visited from Kenya and background
information was provided by the WFP Technical Support and Vulnerability
Analysis and Mapping (VAM) units, USAID Famine Early Warning System
Network (FEWSNET) and several NGOs, including Sudan Relief and Rehabilitation
Agency (SRRA), Relief Association of Southern Sudan (RASS), CONCERN,
CRS, Save the Children-UK, TEARFUND and MSF.
Due to lack of infrastructure and systematic
data collection, planted area
and yield In
the Northern sector, this
year's satisfactory production has been largely the result of area
expansion. Farmers increased their plantings due to favourable weather,
relatively high cereal prices at planting and in response to Government
inducement to cultivate more cereal crops, particularly in the irrigation
schemes. As a result, area harvested under cereals in 2001 increased
by nearly 30 percent compared to 2000. Cereal production on the irrigation
schemes, mechanised farms and traditional sector has increased by
32 percent, 36 percent and 41 percent respectively compared to last
year. In
the Southern sector, civil
conflict and insecurity have continued to hamper agricultural activities.
However, in 2001 rainfall has generally been good over much of the
south and production has improved over last year, especially in Western
Equatoria. Improved access to agricultural areas in many zones, with
the notable exception of Raga, parts of Unity State and parts of Sobat
Corridor in Upper Nile State, has increased planted area. Crop pest
and disease levels have been low and have contributed further to the
satisfactory season. Rangelands have benefited from the favourable
rains, and livestock condition is generally good at present. The continuing
adherence to the peace accord between the Dinka and the Nuer is expected
to benefit pastoralists over significant areas of the south. The
Mission forecasts 2001/02 total cereal production in Sudan at about
4.81 million tonnes, comprising 3.77 million tonnes of sorghum, about
579 000 tonnes of millet and 315 000 tonnes of wheat (to
be harvested in April/May 2002) and about 146 000 tonnes of other
cereals. At this level, cereal production is about 38 percent above
last year’s average crop and about 9 percent above the average of
the last five years. This
above-average crop, coupled with carryover stocks and forecast commercial
imports, consisting mainly of wheat, will result in an overall ample
cereal supply in 2002. This will allow increased cereal consumption
and building up of stocks. In response, prices of cereals in major
producing areas of central and eastern parts of the country have declined
sharply. In Gedaref, sorghum prices in November/December 2001 were
substantially below their level a year ago and were declining. The
decline in prices coupled with a sharp increase in gasoline prices
has discouraged many farmers from harvesting standing crops in parts.
With
limited prospects for exports in 2002, mainly due to improved harvests
in neighbouring countries, heavy supplies are expected to depress
prices further. The Government intends to implement a floor price
policy of market intervention, through the Strategic Commodity Reserve
Authority (SCRA), in order to stabilise prices. The World Food Programme
(WFP) has also made some local purchases for its programme food assistance
in the country. Substantial purchases are required from surplus producing
areas to support farmers as well as consumers in deficit areas. Livestock
in the north of the country are generally in good condition. However,
poor rangeland productivity in some areas, particularly in parts of
Kordofan and Darfur, is expected to result in severe feed shortages
in the coming months, necessitating stock movements. This is by no
means unusual, but the situation is exacerbated this year by the very
depressed prices of livestock resulting from the ban on livestock
imports from the Horn of Africa, including Sudan, by countries in
the Arabian Peninsula due to suspected Rift Valley Fever. Recent reports
indicate that the ban by Saudi Arabia, by far the most important importing
country, has been lifted, but it will take some time for the effect
of this to filter down to pastoralists. In the meantime, stocking
levels are expected to remain higher than can be adequately sustained
through available grazing, for lack of marketing outlets. While
the overall food situation is favourable, the global picture masks
serious deficits at regional and local levels. Despite increased production,
several zones in southern Sudan, including Kapoeta and Torit in East
Equatoria, Aweil West, Aweil East, Gogrial, Twic/Abyei and Tonj in
North Bahr el Ghazal, Raja in West Bahr el Ghazal, Jonglei and Unity
will be in cereal deficit mainly due to population displacement and
insecurity. The predicted cereal surpluses in West Equatoria, Lakes
and Upper Nile States will be unavailable in deficit areas due to
market segmentation and absence or break down of normal trade routes
and infrastructure. Even within surplus States the inability of both
urban and rural poor to access the available food means that food
assistance will be required in 2002. In northern Sudan, parts of North
Kordofan, West Kordofan, North Darfur, South Darfur and Red Sea State
have suffered crop failures due to erratic weather. For most, this
is the third consecutive year of poor harvest. As a result, prices
of cereals, particularly for the staple millet crop, have remained
unusually high, thus eroding the purchasing power of the population,
with large segments depending of food assistance. Therefore, targeted
emergency food assistance will be required in these areas. It is particularly
important to facilitate the timely purchase and transfer of grains
from surplus to deficit areas to support both producers and consumers.
For
various interventions in the drought affected States of Kordofan,
Darfur and the Red Sea, an estimated 78 000 tonnes of cereals
are required. In southern Sudan, where insecurity is a major cause
of food aid needs, the overall needs are estimated at 52 000
tonnes. In addition, food aid needs in the Nuba Mountains (both northern
and southern sectors) amount to about 25 000 tonnes. In total,
155 000 tonnes of food aid will be required in 2002 to assist
about 2 million IDPs, drought affected and vulnerable people. 2. RECENT ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENTS Agriculture remains the most important sector in the
Sudanese economy both in terms of its contribution to GDP (42 percent
in 2000) and to employment (more than two-third of the population).
However, the share of agriculture in the economy is declining as petroleum
exports increase. The country’s leading export commodity was petroleum products
in the year 2000, valued at more than US$1.3 billion (75 percent of
the total exports). This was followed by sesame and livestock products,
valued at US$ 147 million (8 percent) and US$ 66 million (4 percent)
respectively. Other important exports included cotton and gold, valued
at US$ 52 million and US$ 46 million respectively. In March 2001, the government introduced further agricultural
reforms, including the removal or reduction of most direct and indirect
taxes on agricultural production and marketing, and a reduction in
business profit taxes from 35 percent to 10 percent for all companies
engaged in agricultural production, processing and marketing. To compensate for the revenue loss to regional States,
a 12.5 percent tax increase on gasoline prices was introduced in October
2001. However, this price hike coincided with the harvesting period
and substantially increased the cost of production for farmers. This,
combined with the current low farm-gate prices of sorghum in major
surplus producing areas, has forced some farmers to reduce or abandon
altogether the harvesting of their crops. In September 2000, the government established the
Strategic Commodity Reserve Authority (SCRA) in response to food shortages
in parts of the country following prolonged drought conditions. The
functions of the Authority include market stabilisation, mainly for
staple cereals, through imports and local purchases and free and/or
subsidised distribution of food to vulnerable groups in emergency
situations. In 2000/01, the SCRA imported about 70 000 tonnes
of cereals to fill the food gap in the country. Currently, there is
also a plan to purchase large amounts of cereals from farmers who
were encouraged to plant more cereals this season. Unfortunately,
delayed allocation of finance to the SCRA has resulted in losing precious
time in supporting farmers and the market. At the time of the Mission,
sorghum prices were declining sharply in all major surplus areas,
including Blue Nile and Gedaref States. 3. CEREAL PRODUCTION
IN 2001 3.1 Main factors
affecting production in 2001 Rainfall Annual
rainfall in Sudan ranges from almost zero in the north of the country
to 1,800 mm in the southern state of Western Equatoria. This
year, rainfall in the northern sector generally started on time, leading
to expectations of higher agricultural production than last year.
Overall, and especially in the important Central Region, these expectations
have been realised. In
Gezira and Kassala, rainfall was noticeably better this year than
last. Both Gedaref and Blue Nile registered good rains in June and
July which were followed by a dry period; however, this dry spell
gave way to heavy rains in August, and satisfactory amounts were well
distributed in September and October. Sennar State compensated for
a late start to the season with well distributed rainfall during the
later months. In parts of the west of the country though, where traditional
rainfed farming accounts for nearly all cereal production, the promising
rainfall performance early in the season was not always sustained.
Some areas suffered from prolonged dry spells, whereas others experienced
an unusually early ending of the rains; a notable exception was West
Darfur in the extreme west, where rainfall amounts and distribution
were better than normal and good cereal production is expected. Red
Sea State experienced its third consecutive dry year, apart from the
coastal strip where rainfall appears promising for the winter season.
Because
of the high initial rainfall in many parts of the country, and good
rainfall upstream, the level of the Nile was higher than usual this
year. Although this led to localised destructive flooding during August,
it did allow an increased area of rice to be grown. Vegetable production
also benefited from the high river levels. In
the southern sector, annual rainfall amounts increase from north to
south and from east to west. This year, the rains started on time
in most areas, were generally well distributed, and were considered
by most farmers to be better than in recent years. However, heavy
rains in August spoilt some crops, especially in Bahr el Ghazal and
prevented later planting of sorghum in parts of Jonglei where soils
remained water-logged for several weeks. Agricultural inputs The
principal users of fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides and improved
seeds in Sudan are the farmers in the irrigated sector. Improved sorghum
varieties grown this year include 'Wad Ahmed', 'Tabet', 'White Dwarf'
and 'Gadam Hamam'. Fertilizer - usually only urea - is normally provided
through the corporations managing the schemes; there may be some under-application
resulting from farmers selling all or part of their allocation. Pesticide
use on cereals remains low, pesticides being reserved principally
for cash crops such as cotton. Increasingly, farmers in the rainfed
and mechanised sector are recognising the potential advantages of
certain inputs, especially of improved seed. 'Tabet' and 'Feterita'
are widely used. The results, however, are not always striking, depending
as they do on the satisfactory implementation of all the other cultivation
practices and good rainfall distribution. While it is true that the
vast majority of farmers in the traditional sector still use seed
saved from their previous harvest and apply no purchased inputs, the
small proportion using improved seed is gradually growing in those
areas benefiting from the various distribution programmes of Government,
NGOs and international organisations and the results are generally
encouraging. In Red Sea State, for instance, the sorghum varieties
'Arfa Gadamek', 'Aklamoy' and 'Hamashin' were distributed. Seed distribution
is especially important in areas that have suffered repeated droughts
where farmers, because of poor or non-existent harvests, have been
unable to save seed. The
increase in the cost of fuel in October 2001 appears to have had little
effect on planting operations for sorghum and millet, but has affected
harvesting and is expected to have an impact on wheat production during
the current winter season. Several states that were expecting high
production of cereals were faced with inadequate supply of empty sacks.
Weeds, pests and diseases 2001
was not remarkable for pest infestation or disease infection amongst
the cereal crops, and in those areas where production was poor, low
yields were more usually attributable primarily to problems of rainfall
distribution. However, there were localised instances of sorghum midge
(Contarinia sorghicola) in most sorghum-producing areas which led to
yield reductions, and there were some indications that the variety
'Tabet' might be more susceptible than others. Outbreaks, however,
were generally not serious, and certainly not on the scale of two
years ago when crops were devastated in the eastern states. Some limited
outbreaks of American bollworm were reported in parts of the centre
and east. Sorghum smut hit some crops, but usually at a low rate;
the traditional sector is most susceptible because of the use of untreated
seed. Incidence of downy mildew on millet was observed in parts of
North Darfur. Birds were often troublesome for both sorghum and millet
crops in localities where woodlands provide nesting sites, but their
effects were generally reduced by the MOA's extensive and effective
spraying campaign against Quelea
quelea, which is classified as a national pest. Grasshoppers attacked
millet, and to a lesser extent sorghum, in many areas, especially
in the west. Millet headworm was reported in several parts of the
west, often causing a further reduction in yields that were already
low in those areas experiencing poorly distributed rainfall. Striga
was noted in a significant proportion of sorghum fields, but its severity
appears to have been low. In some areas, such as parts of Kordofan,
where the normally staggered start to the rains allows a movement
of labour for weeding, this year's uniform start resulted in inadequate
weeding of a high proportion of cultivated land. Sudan grass and couch-grass
were the most troublesome of the weeds. Pests
and diseases of non-cereal crops were generally not serious this year,
with the important exception of the watermelon bug, which devastated
hundreds of thousands of hectares of watermelon in the west of the
country. Last year, a food-for-work campaign was mounted, whereby
food was earned in return for the manual removal of bugs from the
watermelon crop. Despite the fact that the campaign was highly effective
in demonstrating its efficacy, the practice does not appear to have
been implemented this year. Prices High
cereal prices in 2001 as a result of poor harvest in 2000 and subsequent
low quantities of grain in store encouraged further expansion of cereal
production in mechanised and irrigated sectors of northern Sudan.
For instance, sorghum retail prices of SP45 000 to SP50 000
per 90 kg bag which prevailed at the beginning of the cropping season
(i.e. from May to July 2001) were well above the SP20 000 considered
to be the break-even price for rainfed production, and millet was
selling for as much as SP100 000 per 100 kg bag in areas of chronically
low production. 3.2 Cereal production
forecast The
cereal production forecast for Sudan for 2001/02 is presented in Table
1, along with comparable data for 2000/01. Table 2 gives estimates
of harvested area, yield and production by crop and region for the
five years 1997/98 - 2001/02. Table 3 shows the total cereal production
for each of the northern regions in 2000/01 and 2001/02. This
year's estimated national cereal production of about 4.81 million
tonnes is approximately 38 percent higher than last year's, and 9
percent higher than the average of the preceding five years. However,
it is still substantially less than the 5.8 million tonnes produced
in 1998/99. Much of this year's increase over last year's production
is attributable to a significant expansion of harvested area rather
than to increased yields. For instance, in the northern sector, the
harvested area of sorghum was 33 percent, and the harvested area of
millet 31 percent larger than the equivalent areas last year. Table
1. Sudan: Cereal production forecast for 2001/02 and estimates of
2000/01 (000 tonnes)
*
Includes maize, mainly
produced in southern States, and small amounts of rice Source: Ministry of Agriculture estimates and Mission forecast. Table
2. Sudan: Area, yield and
production forecast by crop and Region for 2001/02, compared with
previous years.
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