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English edition -1st quarter 1999
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Wishful Thinkings
| The Sudanese President, Mr Bachir, recently disclosed that he was prepared
to grant independence to the South if that were the only way of ending
the war. He added that before this eventuality, he would exhaust all persuasive
measures and negotiations in view of keeping the country united. Doctor
Turabi gave out a statement along the same lines.
As to the Southerners, for some of them, total separation from the North would be the ideal solution. In fact, there would be nothing in common between Southerners and Northerners except mutual hatred. The atavistic memory of the Southerners prevents them from forgetting the fact that in the nineteenth century 'Arab' slave traders came from the North ransacking the country and slaughtering men and selling the others on the Middle Eastern markets. Between 1899 and 1956 British occupation put an end to all that. Since then, both massacres and slave trade occurred again, though the latter on a lesser scale. Very many Southerners have no hesitation in considering the period of colonial domination as the golden age of their country. On his side President Bachir is keeping a way out for himself. He declared that before such a decision is taken, all means of reconciliation should be exhausted. Doubtless this is at his own discretion. Khartoum is not particularly keen on keeping the South; it has only brought expenses in warfare and loss of fighters. However, the Sudanese leaders know that the loss of the South would be considered a great setback that no government has dared to face through fear of being accused of incompetence and incapacity to keep the country one and therefore run the risk of a putsch. So why this sudden declaration ? Without a doubt Bachir tries to substantiate his goodwill to both international opinion and IGAD moderators. He wants to calm the impatience of his people, tired of this war with the hardships it entails, tired also of seeing its impressed young men killed in a cause which they do not adhere to. However this offer hides two fearsome traps. The Nuba Mountains, geographically in the North of the country would note be included in the peace plan, yet they are victims of genocide just as much as the South. Northern opponents joined those of the South in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to fight a common enemy. John Garang has always been favourable to a united, lay and democratic Sudan. All his authority was required to impose on his troops his principle of union between the two parts of the country for a common victory. Only after this will the South be able to use its right to autodetermination. This latest statement from Bachir will knock a corner from this too-good-to-be-true union. On the other hand it will raise the hopes of those Southerners who dream of immediate independence. There is a strong risk that this will destabilise Garang, give him new rivals and finally end in a division of his movement and make it ineffective on the field. In addition the South is in ruins. Most of the inhabitants are displaced within the South, abroad, and around the capital. Nothing is left of their traditional way of life. Whatever the type of peace, immense amounts of money will be needed which, in my opinion, should be managed by a single international agency. Above all, if independence happens, a stable government will be required, supported by a U.N. force to have the agreements respected, abuses prevented and the South protected from northern incursions until this young country can manage by itself. The United Nations would also be engaged and guarantors of the independence agreement so as to avoid abuse of rights and traps from the present rulers in the North. The latter could then give itself over to developing that part of the land that is left, realise its dream of being a beacon of Islamic fundamentalism for the rest of the world…and stay in power, which will be a far from easy task. |
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Fomalhaut
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