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English edition -1st quarter 1998
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Moving towards compromise
| In this interminable civil war in which the democratic forces of Sudan
and the Islamic government of Khartoum stand opposed, the adversaries seem
to be gasping for breath.
In the East where Sudan borders Eritrea and Ethiopia, for more than a year the Sudanese army has not succeeded in dislodging the Northern and muslim opponents to the regime who still hold a strip of land which includes several towns.Rather, one should say they haven't even tried. The opposition occasionally provokes skirmishes and has recently claimed the capture of three villages south of the Sudanese city of Gedaref. Yet all ot this is of rather little consequence. The objectives whose capture could truly tip the balance --the occupation of a stretch of the route connectig Khartoum to Port Sudan or of the hydroelectric plant at Damazine-- seem out of reach though these areas are quite close to the front. In the South the dry season which lasts from December to March ended without the usual government offensive which ordinarily takes advantage of the roads being accessible at this time of the year to manoeuvre their tanks and armored vehicles. This year, rather, it was the rebels who took the offensive withourt waiting for the rainy season. They were thus able to occupy Yei and Rumbek but failed to take Wau whose garrison was armed with heavy artillery. Nevertheless, the Sudanese government has fresh troops at its disposal; it has enlisted high schoolers at the end of their secondary education. However it appears that John Garang has been supplied with modern armaments. Are the high schoolers proving resistant to the military vocation or do they perhaps require training and additional motivation? May be the SPLA troops are unable to master the handing of materiel that demands high technical skills ?Whatever the case may be, the fact is that the fronts are stabilizing more or less everywhere and the war that recommenced fifteen years ago is settling into a stalemate. It is in general at such moments as these when both camps feel weary and perceive if not admitt their powerlessness that negotiations have the best chance of getting started and their resulting in agreement. Egypt, which would stand to gain the advantages listed in our last issue from a unified non-Islamic, peaceful Sudan, is letting it be known that it has no major objection to offering its services. The Sudanese government has responded favorably - its talks of returning Egyptian possessions confiscated several years ago and affirms that the contested Halaïb territory would not be a bone of contention between the two friendly nations. The northern opposition is tripartite. Its consists of the Oumma faction which is itself divided between partisans and opponents of Sadek el Mahdi, leader of the religious Ansar sect, the Democratic Unionist Party rallied to the banner of the Mirghani leaders of Khatmiyya, yet another muslim sect; and lastly a bloc composed of others who do not claim any religious adherence: Republicans, Baasists, Nasserians and Communists. As for the southern opposition, it is centered around John Garang, leader of the rebels and of the SPLA. His rivals have rallied with the central governmen with whom they claimto be working towards the possibility of self-rule. In reality they have no voice in the matter. The nothern and southern oppositions gathered under the AND agree in their demand for the abolition of the « houdoud » --the sentences handed down by the Islamic tribunals, and for the installation of a provisional government which would sponsor mutiparty elections favoring a return to democracy. It is difficult to see what more the AND could ask for but this is very likely what Egypt will try to propose to the North while arranging for clemency towards the current leaders of Sudan. All our best wishes go with the negotiators. |
| (V.S. March 1998) Fomalhaut |