Waves as high as thirty meters or more are born in the dip and swell moment of convergence between other waves of normal size. They cause great ships to sink, and are called killer waves. M utatis mutandi , is what appears to be taking place at this instant in Sudan .

President Beshir has named his close assistant Nafi Ali Nafi at the head of Darfur . Known today as an influential hawk, Nafi served as chief of State Security in the early days of the regime and is recognized as the perpetrator of numerous atrocities, but sadly not for his abilities as a negotiator. Beshir has also named his current Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, which includes the portfolio of director of camps for the internally displaced and for the NGO's, Ahmed Haroun to be the presiding the Human Rights Commission. Haroun is one of two individuals indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Thus human rights abuses persist. Khartoum has invited thirty thousand Nigerian, Tchadian and Malian Arabs to settle on the land from which countless black Darfuris have been evicted.

France and Great Britain were obliged to cede ground on several points of their joint resolution concerning the United Nations/African Union (UN/AU) hybrid force in order to appease the Chinese and the Russians. The issue of civilian protection was never properly settled. To date, the hybrid Force has no jurisdiction to disarm the janjaweed: its right to defend civilians extends only to the areas where it is to be deployed, responsibility it will share with armed contingents of the Sudanese Army replete with ferocious enmity.

The final resolution will grant preferential selection to qualified African troops, under the command of the UN. After a visit to Beshir, African Union President Alpha Konare declared that Africa will supply all the soldiers necessary for the Darfur mission, without consulting the UN that command the force and pay the bill. However, experts have stated that African countries have neither qualified nor experienced soldiers and policemen to send. This being the case, Sudan has threatened to delay the arrival of the hybrid force yet again. As reporter Wasil Ali has written for the Sudan Tribune on line, “ The thin line separating the positions of the AU, as a regional organization, and that of the Sudanese government, a party to the Darfur conflict, has eroded.” As far as Sudan is concerned, “the Africans are easier to manipulate into taking favorable stances towards them... and as such will not expose their wrong doings in Darfur, ; we have rarely seen an African official criticize the Sudan over the Darfur….Before that, the AU had slowed the pace of planning for the operations by demanding the command over the hybrid force, Given the failure of the AU in Darfur ans its inability to even disburse the salaries of its forces, it was an unprecedented request. Then without consulting with the UN, it selected to the post of second in command, the Rwandan General Karoke, a man accused of war crimes…… The International Criminal Court has tried in vain to sign a cooperation agreement with the AU with no success. The UN under the leadership of Ban Ki Moon has demonstrated extreme weakness.”

The AU has been a solid ally, backing Khartoum unequivocally on its peace negotiation demands, sorely criticized in the pages of Vigilance Soudan . For example, all mediators, whether States or personalities were chosen without ever consulting the rebel factions; Salem Ahmed Salem's road map is very strict (VS Nov. 143). The most important head of opposition, Abd el Wahed el Nur, leader of the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) has refused to come to the table without a general cease-fire. Beshir has said that one would be implemented during the talks. This is an empty promise to which he is not bound, one Bashir further declared would only apply to those rebels in attendance. What will happen to all those left behind in camps for displaced persons? Since then, the UN has acted perfunctorily, refusing both a time-out and any support for SLM unification. Negotiations are to resume October 27 in Libya , a country which pressed Sudan to reject UN troops. In the past Qaddafi has supported Arab in the Sahel with arms and munitions, but now constantly speaks of sanctioning the rebels and schemes to derive ways to multiply their divisions using financial incentives. Without assuming his responsibility, Beshir has misgivings as to a successful outcome of resumed talks: there are too many factions ; they do not represent the armed groups.. The Americans have threatened the rebels with sanctions if they are not present in Libya . They have already done so for the non-signatories in Abuja ; and now believe they were right. As journalist Wasil Ali concludes, “ It is about time the international community and Darfur advocates realize that the AU and Khartoum are flip sides of the same coin. The AU acts like a proxy to the Sudanese government to make life more difficult for the people of Darfur by delaying the deployment of the peacekeeping force, reducing its efficiency, and acting as a biased negotiator in looking for a peace accord. We must get past the clichés praising the AU for the work they have done in Darfur . The humanitarian crisis in Darfur cannot be hijacked by a few men at the AU whose only interest is to please one side at the expense of the other .”

Salva Kiir has surprised everyone by delegating a good portion of his authority to his Vice President Riek Machar, including considerable financial responsibilities. The problems befalling South Sudan are always the same: economic development, security, corruption and above all else the non-application of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Salva Kiir met with Khartoum 's Minister of the Interior. Was this an occasion for him to complain about the government's encroaching on the power of the South's local authorities in crude oil producing regions? A heaven-sent surprise may increase the difficulty in finding a solution: the CPA promised to use the North/South territorial boundary at the moment of 1956 independence. Required tby the South Sudan government to help demarcate it, British Douglas Johnson declared that where it is projected to lie today “ is much too far south.”

Khartoum has not totally withdrawn its Sudanese Army troops from South Sudan as stipulated, but says it has demobilized the militias. Still it goes on paying them. The government will not withdraw its armed forces until the SPLA troops withdraws from the regions laid to waste in the North, where their numbers are hard to estimate. According to Salva Kiir, a recurrence of hostilities is possible. In substance, Beshir has told him that he has the intention of holding to the peace, with the exception of Abyei (perhaps the area most dear to southerners) and has no intention to reinitiate war, as if it was only up to him to decide.

Even as numerous voices have expressed doubt with regard to the UN's political clout, the Sudan goes on, locked in the rhythm of agonizing drama: the uncertain status of Abyei, the dams of the Nile in the North, the fictitious coup d' é tat in Khartoum, difficulties in the East, the expulsion of well known foreigners…….

B é telgeuse