A ccording to the International Crisis Group, peace in Darfur would pose two serious threats to the Sudanese government in Khartoum. The first would be that if during the free elections, expected to be held in 2009, a Darfuri political party, alone or in concert with the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM), the Umma party or other groups, came to the fore, it would threaten the Islamic National Congress Party (NCP). Secondly, as a result of regional stability, the International Criminal Court would find investigating war and humanity crimes committed by nefarious rulers much easier.

As countermeasures to this eventual menace, the Sudanese government is employing four tactics: weakening the rebellion using a “divide and rule' strategy; selectively arming certain tribal groups and militias; holding unilateral negotiations with various rebel commanders, notably in Gebel Mara, as presidential adviser Nafie Ali Nafie recently proclaimed; and lastly pursuing military action. The whole makes for generalized chaos. Security and Intelligence Minister Abdullah Gosh has had a hand in fomenting the pandemonium.

In any case, after bombing designated terrain in order to prevent the various factions of the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) from meeting and unifying their peace demands, Khartoum announced its willingness to remodel and adapt the Abuja Accords while expressing profound disappointment that the rebels had not been able to arrive at common grounds for negotiations!! At the same time, Khartoum deemed useless a hybrid United Nations/African Union force as the government was set on achieving peace. The hybrid force has three stages. At times Khartoum accepts the second phase, but then suddenly reverses its position.

In the meantime, the SPLM intervened. It organized a committee under the leadership of Clement Janda. He has been given the task of uniting Darfuri rebel factions in Juba mid June, to arrive at a unified peace proposal. His team has received African Union and UN approval. An excellent initiative has been to question displaced persons in Darfur. Janda has spoken with tribal leaders as well. But have these tribal chiefs been planted by Khartoum? Are the meetings with Arabs and Janjaweed militiamen as well? No intervention contingent will ever arrive at disarming these forces after a peace accord is signed as long as the leaders have not been persuaded there are advantages to be had. One possible incentive may shortly go into play. Very recently an ancient lake dating back to an undetermined geological era was discovered in North-Darfur with a surface area estimated a 30,000 square kilometers and containing close to 2350 cubic kilometers water ; it has allegedly filtered sandstone. The discovery holds immense development potential for Arab tribes in proximity, the same tribes that have furnished Janjaweed fighters, keeping them aloof of Africans. And then, does this committee foresee an inclusive peace agreement without Khartoum's authorization?

Eritrea attempted to pull the rug out from under the South when it precipitated a meeting between several rebel groups in Darfur, inviting Libya, Chad, and Southern Sudanese leaders. These disparate and uncoordinated efforts do not favor the peace agenda rather work in Khartoum's favor. Eritrea seems only to want to patronize the National Redemption Front (NRF) rebel alliance, and Libya to sanction the rebels. However Eritrea had convened SLA commandants incompetent at the negotiation table.

Under the auspices of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, Chad and Sudan signed a reconciliation agreement. Chad's President Idriss Déby announced that he would expel all Sudanese rebels from the country but in fact has allowed Khalil Ibrahim to keep quiet in Abéché. It is not known if Khartoum will reciprocate and expel Chadian fighters.

A significant and positive change will allegedly soon occur in the South. As stipulated by the Peace Agreement of January 2005, Khartoum has promised to settle border dispute in the region of Abyei, to set the permanent North/South frontier and to recall all Sudanese Army troops from northern Southern Sudan. The area, once so rich in petroleum deposits is allegedly now nearly depleted with barely a three year exploitable time frame remaining. On the other hand, Salva Kiir acted in favour of the peace implementation. He has proposed that Total resume exploitation on its oil concession. Khartoum and the South would split the benefits equally and he would withdraw the White Nile concession where the profits only go to the South. Salva has frozen all White Nile oil drilling and demanded an investigation on its contract, deemed illegal, but over which the proprietor, a former cricket player, tries the bargaining chips.

F rench President Nicholas Sarkozy has asked Bernard Kouchner to make peace in Darfur his number one priority. Kouchner has suggested hat secure humanitarian corridors be established between Chad and Darfur. The NGO Médecins Sans Frontières is opposed reasoning that, “ If humanitarian convoys are provided secure access by a foreign army, they could be judged as having taken sides in the conflict and thus a fair target.” The bureaucrats at the Quay d'Orsay are beside themselves. The project has been abandoned. A ministerial meeting held in Paris at the end of June with participants from African and Arab countries, G8 members and China is proposed. A sort of “Abuja + ”, they said. China has not turned down the invitation. Will rebel forces attend? Sudan had not been first invited. France also wishes to protect and provide humanitarian aid to the refugees now camped in Chad under the auspices of the EU. The Chadians seem not to oppose this idea, reserving their marked displeasure for the UN blue helmets.

Bételgeuse